Great write-up and backstory. I think this is the right context for the story. It feels so Liars Poker, so the Big Short. The only bit that is missing is that the simply incredible note that Michael Lewis has been embedded with SBF for a few months, working on a new book. He's writing about the SBF-CZ axis which he apparently called Luke Skywalker vs Darth Vader. I'm wondering whether SBF is Luke or Anakin. Maybe we could all pay Michael a little a month to get a heads-up on who he's working with next as a tail-risk hedge?
Educational and entertaining, with a twist of the least expected sentence in the universe: "I ended up long a bunch of Dong." thanks for the great read 😆
This makes a ton of sense. If it was a Ponzi scheme, the amount of SBF's spending could only equal the amount kept with FTX by customers. But we KNOW that SBF spent big sums on political donations, investments and real estate. He HAD to be embezzling money from FTX itself.
Solid writeup and great question. Outrigh theft makes as much sesne as anything, but SBF would had to know it would all come crashing down. So there's a few more questions - does he not think he'll be held criminally liable, was he a pawn of people who had a better idea of what was going on and used him as a fall guy, or was he, and everyone else just stupid/irresponsible to actually loose it all?
During the dot-com boom we had the term "burn rate", how much money a startup was losing each month – and the bigger the number, the more the startup would boast about it. "Think as big as possible" was the way then, and again recently, and the Sequoia partners evaluating FTX loved the hugeness of SBF's vision. You can't be like that and be careful at the same time. If you happened to hire a responsible CFO/similar you will get rid of them. But eventually society starts to drop out of its manic state, and then people start asking the questions that they would have at any non-manic time. Then everything implodes, as it did in 2000. (In 2000 I found myself unemployed for the first time, and couldn't get work for a long time. This time around, however, I've been avoiding the madness. Currently I work for a bootstrapped startup that's in good shape, and I expect to keep my job.)
It sounds like these startup electric truck companies. Lots of money, but little product. Lots of promotion, but little profit. Lots of "ideas", but little practical experience in manufacturing trucks.
Great write-up and backstory. I think this is the right context for the story. It feels so Liars Poker, so the Big Short. The only bit that is missing is that the simply incredible note that Michael Lewis has been embedded with SBF for a few months, working on a new book. He's writing about the SBF-CZ axis which he apparently called Luke Skywalker vs Darth Vader. I'm wondering whether SBF is Luke or Anakin. Maybe we could all pay Michael a little a month to get a heads-up on who he's working with next as a tail-risk hedge?
Educational and entertaining, with a twist of the least expected sentence in the universe: "I ended up long a bunch of Dong." thanks for the great read 😆
Wow, great read. Thanks!
How much did Tom (not-so-terrific) lose? Maybe all the cash went with Giselle, and all of the risk with Tom.
Why didn’t more predict the downfall or see through it?
This makes a ton of sense. If it was a Ponzi scheme, the amount of SBF's spending could only equal the amount kept with FTX by customers. But we KNOW that SBF spent big sums on political donations, investments and real estate. He HAD to be embezzling money from FTX itself.
Solid writeup and great question. Outrigh theft makes as much sesne as anything, but SBF would had to know it would all come crashing down. So there's a few more questions - does he not think he'll be held criminally liable, was he a pawn of people who had a better idea of what was going on and used him as a fall guy, or was he, and everyone else just stupid/irresponsible to actually loose it all?
During the dot-com boom we had the term "burn rate", how much money a startup was losing each month – and the bigger the number, the more the startup would boast about it. "Think as big as possible" was the way then, and again recently, and the Sequoia partners evaluating FTX loved the hugeness of SBF's vision. You can't be like that and be careful at the same time. If you happened to hire a responsible CFO/similar you will get rid of them. But eventually society starts to drop out of its manic state, and then people start asking the questions that they would have at any non-manic time. Then everything implodes, as it did in 2000. (In 2000 I found myself unemployed for the first time, and couldn't get work for a long time. This time around, however, I've been avoiding the madness. Currently I work for a bootstrapped startup that's in good shape, and I expect to keep my job.)
It sounds like these startup electric truck companies. Lots of money, but little product. Lots of promotion, but little profit. Lots of "ideas", but little practical experience in manufacturing trucks.