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Doug Orr's avatar

So, first, it takes a trader to use stock valuation as the numerator of a productivity equation. If we didn't live in the "everything bubble" that's been 100% financed by the fed, things would look different.

Anyone who's lived through the deindustrialization of steel or autos knows the "find other work" thing is somewhere between an optimistic fantasy and a cynical sop. The reality is, the other, equivalent work goes to an increasingly small subset of young people. If we were to look at outcomes normalized for position in society, the picture would be pretty grim.

The idea that Amazon is a great success only fits in a world where retail is an awesome outcome. So, one of the basic assumptions of the discussion is off. The same goes for advertising (Google, Twitter and FB's real business, given that they can't actually sell their products). (Don't get me started on Uber - low cost transportation based on exploiting people who can't factor the expense of running a personal car as a business into employment decisions. Microsoft, making us more "productive" for forty years based on nobody's metrics. Apple, the Hermes of smartphones. It's embarrassing, nobody does anything worthwhile or honorable.)

And, yeah, the whole thing is ripping up the American fabric, so the only problem with the good, bad, and ugly is that it's all pretty ugly. The entire article reeks of SV bubble thinking.

Covid accelerated exposure of the fractures that forty years of neoliberal "greed is good" / "core business" / "profit is the only objective function" have created. Anyone who's made money in the past ten years largely owes it to the fed mortgaging our future. The "Greenspan put" was amateur hour... child's play.

So, we are left with haves vs have nots, SV and finance vs everyone else, educated vs ignorant, science-believing vs superstitions... Nobody at the top has valued the health of our communities for more than forty years. And, everyone is armed.

Thanks neoliberals!

The very best part of the article was the fp pointer.

With our current degree of living in two different realities, the idea that we could mount an effective challenge to China's onslaught is pretty laughable. Markets decide everything and the market will tell us if we need rare earths from Africa...only way after it's already too late. (It will probably make a fascinating business school case study about how markets mostly don't work well after all, given their deep problems with local optima and lack of strategic forethought... they're just better than Stalinism implemented with 1940s communication technology -- at the hands of Republicans, that seems to be the only comparison ever made.)

Our future rides on two things: (a) our position holding the reserve currency and (b) that miracles really exist.

(Btw, this is the third version I've typed in because whatever SV does in terms of making auth and accounts work well totally sucks.)

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